It's not us, it's you.
Thoughts on the current political situation.
Britain looks to be on the brink of losing yet another Prime Minister. Here are my thoughts on the latest political drama.
It’s not us, it’s you.
Some commentators have taken to suggesting Britain is now ungovernable. That, as a populace, we have become uniquely restless, short-termist and divided. In other words, it’s not the fault of the politicians that Britain is lurching from one government to the next; it is the fault of the people. But this fails to recognise two things.
First, the politicians we have had over the past few decades have been intellectual and moral pygmies compared to those in previous generations. From Theresa May to Rishi Sunak and now Keir Starmer - these are over-promoted bureaucrats rather than serious political thinkers. Second, it fails to recognise the disjuncture between the entire political class and the mass of the population. Politicians who seek approval from global leaders, the EU, and senior civil servants at home rather than from the general public will always be at risk of being democratically ousted.
Labour has nothing to offer other than cliches
Listen to Starmer’s reset speech, and it is abundantly clear that the Labour Party has nothing to offer voters beyond tired old cliches. Further and faster, growth, at the heart of Europe, working people… It’s vacuous. There is no plan to change anything. Voters rejected the EU and rejected New Labour. Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman are out-of-touch political has-beens. Starmer’s attempt to bring them back shows he’s all out of ideas.
Labour’s irrelevance has been long in the making
Labour’s collapse in the polls is not down to a sudden drop in support. The party’s victory in the last general election was entirely hollow. It was a mile wide, but an inch thin, built on the back of a desire to get the Conservative Party out, rather than Starmer’s popularity or the fact that the public had been convinced by a programme for reform. Starmer’s so-called ‘ming vase’ strategy meant little was revealed in the run-up to the election about where Labour stood on the most important issues of the day. Since being elected, the vase has been revealed to be empty.
But Labour’s decline set in long, long before the last election. The working class has been moving away from Labour for decades. In what were once Labour heartlands, voters have been staying at home or switching to other parties for decades. As Labour became a party of the managerial and cultural elite, it lost public support.
Dumping Starmer will change nothing
Because Labour’s problems are so longstanding and so existential, switching leaders will change nothing. Streeting, Rayner or Burnham (if he can get a seat in parliament at all) will no doubt breathe a little life back into the corpse and allow it to stumble on for a few months more. But the issue the Labour Party faces is not about personality but policy. And there is no policy agenda that can please both party members and huge swathes of the public.
Net Zero sits well with party members, but it means job losses, high energy bills and fuel insecurity to the majority. Trans rights sit well with party members but not with female voters. Increasing the benefits bill suits party members but not working families who are struggling to get by while seeing unemployed neighbours enjoy a better life than they do. High levels of migration suit liberal party members who think ‘diversity is our strength’, but not those who have a migrant hostel in their community and worry about their daughters making it safely home.
It’s all over for the Conservative Party, too.
Many right-wing commentators are keen to see a Tory revival. Kemi Badenoch is indeed one of the few politicians who can be taken seriously today. But as John Curtice pointed out in The Spectator this week, parts of Britain that backed Brexit have deserted the Tories. During their fourteen years in office, they proved themselves as divided, weak, and out of touch with the public as Labour. Badenoch may now want to bring about change. But voters will not easily forget the betrayal over Brexit, Net Zero and migration.
Populism has changed everything
First Brexit, now Reform. Populism has changed the political landscape, enabling people to have their voices heard. For years, there was no ballot box alternative to the Labour or Conservative Party. Now there is. Importantly, Reform does not just challenge mainstream parties but the elite consensus on all manner of issues.
The Reform surge in the most recent local elections correlates with the vote for Brexit in 2016. What we see being played out today is the failure of both Labour and the Conservatives to act on the spirit of the decade-old plebiscite, along with an insurgent party that promises to do so.
The old parties might be dead, but politics itself is in rude health.
Turbulence is unsettling. But people making their presence felt brings with it the promise of change for the better, and that is exciting.
Thank you to my paid subscribers for making it possible for me to write this.
Absolutely spot on Joanna
Excellent summary.