War with Russia?
Ukraine is just a prop in Britain’s domestic political theatre
The British government ought to cease talking up a new, unnecessary, expensive, and distracting Cold War with Russia.
‘Forty-Five Minutes to Attack!’, screamed the headline of the Evening Standard on 24 September 2002 reporting on Tony Blair’s ‘dodgy dossier’. The foreword to that document claimed that Saddam Hussein possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction capable of being readied for use in as little as that time, potentially against British targets. It was a high point in the low and dishonest form of politics often now called ‘strategic communications’, not soon to be repeated, it was to be hoped, let alone exceeded. Now is not the time to tally up the cost of the wars that resulted from it because it will be many years yet before the price in blood, treasure, and prestige is even fully known. Suffice to say the cost to Britain of its elite’s strategic folly and self-deception has been very large.
What are we to make of the current brewing confrontation with Russia over Ukraine? Should we hope that the government now understands that for its strategies to be good they should be aimed at the achievement of plausible objectives at proportionate cost? That they should be commensurate with the furthering of actual national values (i.e., popularly held ones not just those of the metropolitan elite)? That it is competent to judge the intent and capabilities of its supposed enemies? That it is capable of honest self-assessment of its own strengths, weaknesses, and mid- and long-term interests?
The answer is no. The country’s politicians have an undiminished appetite for strategic hyperbole. They are not inclined or trained or, one now suspects, even capable of thinking and acting in the national interest. They have incredibly poor judgment when it comes to the intent and capabilities of serious competitors, to judge from the comparatively torporific response to China which has been welcomed to take a huge stake in our national communications and energy systems, major industries, and universities. They are resistant to the contemplation of home truths. Worst of all they act as though war is, first and foremost, a prop in domestic political theatre. Britain is a rich country, but this must stop because we are not so rich that we can continue so stupidly.
Atomic rhetoric
‘This is our Cuban Missile crisis’, writes Tobias Ellwood MP, chair of the parliamentary defence committee, in the Mail on Sunday; Britain ought to lead a NATO division into Ukraine to ‘make Putin think twice’ about invading. It would be nice if Britain’s politicians thought once for a change. How is the situation at all like the Cuban Missile Crisis? Is there really a mortal threat to the existence of the UK? Is the world really on the brink of nuclear Armageddon? If the situation is like those famous 13 days in October 1962, then what role is Britain in? In fact, it’s strategic flummery—dumb rhetoric that would be worth a laugh if it were not dangerous.
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